Tag Archives: advice

March 11, 2013 · 10:00 am

The CW

You might have read this morning that the online betting site InTrade is shutting down.

Intrade $ predictions - Nov 3

(Photo credit: New England Secession)

Unlike many of the gambling sites with which you might be familiar, InTrade lets users place wagers on non-sports-related upcoming events.  It was a lot of fun to read the site during the election season because you could see the odds of various candidates’ success changing with each news cycle.  You can read about why the business is shutting down here or here.  We can debate if it’s for legitimate concerns or just because it seemed to be operating outside of the long arm of the law but that’s not really my topic this morning.

What interests me about this site is that it was sometimes criticized for “getting it wrong”, as if the odds it offered were some kind of prediction.  That’s as off-base as thinking that a Las Vegas betting line is a prediction of the outcome.  Neither of those things are true.  InTrade’s odds simply reflected the conventional wisdom – how people saw the outcome and were betting.  It was not any sort of analysis of polling and other data to make predictions.  The Vegas line is similar.  It’s not a prediction – it’s an inducement.  It reflects how the conventional wisdom perceives the event’s outcome and is there to induce an equal number of people to bet on either side.  That’s why the odds change and the line changes.

We do the same thing in business a lot of the time and it’s often to our detriment.  We don’t “bet” on the outcome because we often confuse it with the conventional wisdom.  It’s the old expression about no one ever getting fired for buying IBM or ATT back when those services were the “go to” providers.  We see it today in media plans – start with TV and see whats left.  Even in digital we see it with the “buy Facebook” thinking I run into all the time.  “Winning” in my mind means trying new things all the time, measuring them with data, and not worrying a whole lot if the outcomes defy the conventional wisdom.  After all, it’s easy to get lost in a herd (or to get trampled).

What do you think?

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February 11, 2013 · 11:53 am

I Know They Suck At Business

We had a little snow here over the weekend.  You might have heard about it – all 30+ inches worth of it.  Fortunately, we hunkered down and made it through without any damage of loss of power.  By yesterday we had been plowed out and the streets were clear enough to venture out.  Besides getting some fresh air, I got a quick business lesson I’d like to share.  It’s the business equivalent of a poker “tell” – something a person does that is a dead giveaway as to how good or bad a hand they hold.  In this case it has to do with how good or bad they are at business and it’s something you can use as well.

Driving around we saw an incredible number of cars with snow on their roofs.  I’m not sure why but the majority of them seemed to be SUVs.   Oh sure, I understand that its difficult to get all the snow off of the roof when the car is six feet tall.  It takes a little extra effort and maybe a minute to find a broom.  Apparently, that was too much for the folks behind the wheels of these vehicles, none of whom looked to be older than me (so age and infirmity are no excuse).

I know they suck at business.  The snow on the roof is a dead giveaway.   Driving behind one of these idiots is dangerous – we must have seen six or seven explosions of snow and ice blow off of the roofs as we drove down the parkway.  Not that it makes a huge difference but this was not some dusting of snow that blew off – most of the cars had a least a foot of snow on them.  Fortunately, we didn’t see any accidents but we did see several cars hit their brakes or swerve.  Pretty dangerous.

I know they’re bad at business because they’re selfish and self-absorbed   They can’t possibly put the needs of customers or clients ahead of their own desires   They can’t stop thinking about themselves long enough to listen to an employees cry for help.  They can’t make products that appeal to others. They’re too “Me”-focused.  If they weren’t, they’d take the time to think about the drivers sharing the road with them.

An over-reaction on my part?  Tell me.

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February 1, 2013 · 11:24 am

Chefs And Cooks

Ah, Foodie Friday!  The gateway to the weekend.  One of the things I like most about the weekend is that I can spend time in the kitchen and not feel as if I’m neglecting work.  I suppose for those folks for whom the kitchen is work – on both an amateur and professional basis – that’s not such a treat but it is to me.  There are, of course, an awful lot of differences between what I do in the kitchen and what a professional does.  The biggest difference, aside from the skill level, is that I’m usually there working by myself as both chef and cook.  If you’re not clear as to what the main difference is, read on – there’s a business point in it as well.

English: White House chefs, directed by Execut...

.(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Running a business is similar to running a kitchen.  The key in both cases is for the person in charge – the chef – not to get too caught up in doing the grunt work but instead in spending their time and energy supervising and helping the line cooks.  Any great chef will tell you that the hardest part of their work isn’t  creating the dishes they serve.  Instead, it’s in taking those menu items  and putting them into a system that will work efficiently.  You must produce each dish in a timely manner and at a consistent level of quality.  Managing a business staff is the same – the art is in creating a system that produces consistent work in a timely, efficient manner.

Another point to consider is the complexity of those dishes or the projects you assign to your staff.  I used to play music with a lot of extremely talented musicians.  However, there were a few pieces that were just too difficult for us to pull off and in the interest of our audience we didn’t try to play them publicly.  Knowing the limitations of a staff or your business to produce something is an important part of the management mix and the creative process.

Most chefs have no problem stepping into a station on the line if need be.  Most great managers can step in and help with the grunt work as well.  The ones who aren’t worthy of their titles are the ones who think it’s beneath them or who don’t have the focus on the customer’s immediate need for the work.  Which are you – a chef or a cook?  Which role should you be playing?

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