If you follow the TV business at all you’ve probably noticed a bunch of recent articles about the acceleration of the cord-cutting phenomenon. This article from Business Insider is typical, as are the results:
In a recent Business Insider survey of 104 teens nationwide, only 2% of Gen Zs said that cable is their most-used choice for video content. Nearly a third said YouTube is their most-used source for video content, and 62% say streaming excluding YouTube, including Netflix or Hulu, is their most-used.
What’s happening is that many younger folks who once purchased a cable TV subscription are no longer doing so, and the pace at which that’s happening is rising quickly. As one piece noted, “roughly 5.4 million Americans are expected to cut the TV cord this year, thanks largely to the rise in cheaper, more flexible streaming TV alternatives.” Is that significant? Oh yes:
According to eMarketer’s latest figures, the number of cord-cutters—adults who have ever canceled pay-TV service and continue without it—will climb 32.8% this year to 33.0 million. That’s higher than the 22.0% growth rate (27.1 million) projected in July 2017.
That’s a lot of money leaving the building, and yet there doesn’t seem to be widespread panic among the cable providers. Why not? Because they people who are cutting the cable cord are locking themselves into the broadband cord, and that, dead readers, is an even better deal for the cable guys. Why? Well, think about your own situation. I’ve got two options for TV service here – one cable, one satellite. Neither is appreciably different. The satellite is a bit less expensive but service craps out in bad weather so although it has some unique content and 4K, it’s not perfect. If I decide to cut the cord and take some TV over the air and stream the rest, I have only ONE option to get true broadband service, and that’s how most US markets are as well.
How this came to be is laid out in this Techdirt piece and I won’t repeat what they have to say. The short answer is that natural monopolies have developed and they’re not going to go away. Even if some company tries to enter the market (as Google Fiber did), the time to build the service is lengthy. Laws have been passed to prevent municipalities from entering the market and providing competition as well.
Given my druthers, I’d rather be a broadband provider than a cable TV provider. Your programming costs are almost non-existent, you know a lot more about how your customer is using the service (your ISP knows all, your cable TV guy is just figuring out how to track you accurately), your margins are great, and you probably won’t have any competition despite lousy customer service and usage caps. Who are the big broadband providers? Yep, the same cable guys who are “suffering” from cord cutting. You think they’re worried?