When I’m…

Most of the time, this blog is about you, or at least about something that I think could be helpful to you. Today, if you’ll indulge me since it’s my birthday, it’s mostly about me, although maybe there’s something you could take away as well.

When I was 12, The Beatles put out the Sgt. Pepper album. It had a little ditty called “When I’m 64” on it. While to most of us the song was brand-new, it turns out it was one of the first songs Paul ever wrote and was in The Beatles performance repertoire quite early on (they played it when their amps went out). It seemed kind of hokey to 12-year-old me and the lyrics about being old and losing my hair seemed very far off.

Well, that was in 1967, and if you can do the math, it’s 52 years later. So let’s see – I was 12 and if add 52 that’s OMFG – I’m 64! Well, happy frickin’ birthday, old man. Yep, the future is now. My hair is mostly gone too. I don’t, however, ask myself if I’m still needed (nor do I have Vera, Chuck or Dave as grandchildren). I also realize the song is about getting old together and is sung by a young person. 64, by the way, is still pretty young. That said, may I impart a little wisdom from this almost-aged one?

I try to live in the moment. I’ve made an effort to stop looking back and wanting things to have been different and I try not to look too far forward because things happen each day that affect what the future might hold. That’s not as easy as it sounds, at least not for me. When I do look back, I try not to think of things I would do differently as mistakes but as lessons. I’ve always been a pretty good student and have never had to repeat a class so learning those lessons thoroughly prevents the outcomes I might change from happening again.

Like most of us, I’ve experienced unbelievable joy and unbearable sadness. The trick isn’t, as some folks say, not to get too caught up in either. I think experiencing them fully is the best (and worst) part of being human. It’s when we stop feeling and are emotionally dead to the world that we have problems. I just try to remember that the highs and lows will pass and while each of those extremes affects us in some way, the changes they bring make each day more interesting than the last.

Mostly, what I’ve learned is exactly that: it’s about constant curiosity and learning. Growth and wisdom come from that learning and we’re all in this together, like it or not. Helping others to grow and to learn, as I set out to do as a teacher 40 years ago and still do now in a different way, assures that the world answers the “will you still need me” question in the affirmative. Does that make sense?

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Filed under Helpful Hints, Reality checks, Thinking Aloud, What's Going On

False Inferences

This Foodie Friday, let’s give a round of applause to Burger King, A&W, White Castle, and all of the other burger chains who are beginning to serve Impossible Burgers. OK, throw in the donut chains who are serving the Beyond Meat “sausage” products too. Are they indistinguishable from their meat-based versions? I have no idea – I generally don’t go to QSRs when I want a burger although I might have to just to try one out.

The round of applause is not for taste but for trying to expand their customer bases to include vegetarians and vegans. My vegan daughter will (rarely) go to a QSR and get what amounts to lettuce and tomato on a bun (think a chicken sandwich without the chicken) although some of the chains offer truly vegan patties and sandwiches.

Burger King is not one of those – their veggie burger has both milk and eggs in it. However, they are one of the first chains to add the Impossible Burger to their offerings. As it seems with many things business-related, there is a dark lining to the silver cloud. It turns out, unless you specifically ask, the Impossible Burger is cooked with the same broiler as regular burgers and chicken. So much for vegan or even vegetarian. Burger King says that 90% of the people who ordered the Impossible Whopper during a trial run this spring are meat eaters, which means most diners may not care if their faux-meat patties are cooked alongside classic beef ones. In fairness, they don’t label the product as vegan either. Still, it raises a point I want to bring to the surface today.

Humans make inferences. We use our beliefs as assumptions and make inferences based on those assumptions. We do that because we can’t act without them. We have to have some basis for understanding and the only way for us to take action is to use our assumptions to make inferences. An assumption is something we “know” based on our beliefs or previous experience.

When Burger King offers a burger that is a vegan alternative to a meat-based product (something that’s known) you can see how a customer will infer it’s still vegan even when it’s not labeled as such.  If there is room for the customer to draw a faulty inference based on reasonable assumptions, I think we need to go out of our way to correct them. I also think that it’s way out of bounds to create those false inferences knowingly – having the customer see that something is 35% off and a good buy when you marked it up the week before with the intent of marking it back down.

The difference between “relaxing” and “wasting time” is all in the meaning we assign to what we’re doing, the inferences we draw. The difference between “selling” and “dishonesty” or “hyperbole” or even “grifting” is also based on inferences. Not allowing customers to draw a well-constructed line from their assumptions to inferences and meaning is bad business in the long run, don’t you think?

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Filed under food, Huh?, Thinking Aloud

Symptoms, Diseases, And The Long Term

We’re into that time of the year when corporations are reporting their results for the last quarter. I tend to look at any single quarter’s results as a data point and since I’m a believer in watching things through the lens of the long-term, I mostly ignore anything strongly negative or positive unless it’s part of a long-term trend.

I’m sure it’s not a shock to any of you that the cable TV provider business is in a downward trend. I’ve written about this before and you might be one of the millions of folks who have cut their cable cord and gone pure streaming or supplement your streaming with an HD antenna to get your local TV over the air (everything old is new again!). Charter Communications is one of those cable TV providers who is watching their user base deteriorate. This last quarter, the company’s video customers sank by 150,000 subscribers, now totaling 15.8 million. At the same time, their Internet customers grew 221,000 to a total of 24.2 million, which also mirrors what’s going on elsewhere and the aforementioned trends. At the same time, these distributors are getting hit with increased costs for programming – what the cable networks charge the delivery guys to carry their programming (and in theory, the availability of which is why people pay for cable in the first place).

What the CEO said in making the results announcement, however, doesn’t mirror other CEO’s thinking and that’s what I want to highlight today:

Asked why the company doesn’t raise prices to cover increased programming costs, CEO Tom Rutledge said, “If you do a 10% programming price increase and lose 10% of your customers, you don’t really get anywhere and yet you’ve alienated a lot of people. In fact, that’s actually happening and has been happening. I expect continuous fighting for the foreseeable future.”

Mr. Rutledge gets it.  He is not confusing a symptom (customer loss amid increasing costs) with the disease (a rapidly changing business model reflecting consumer resentment at the high monthly out of pocket costs). Rasing prices would, in my opinion, accelerate the negative trend. It would stabilize earnings and make investors happy in the short term, but it’s not sustainable and would ultimately result in disaster.

More of us in business need to think that way. What’s a symptom and what’s the disease it reflects? What’s the right play for the long term even if it hurts in the short term? Does that make sense?

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Filed under Consulting, Reality checks