According to Wikipedia, the term “warning shot (in nautical terms, often called a shot across the bow) is a harmless artillery shot or gunshot intended to call attention and demand some action.” We get them in business too but you’d be surprised how often people aren’t paying attention. What’s less surprising is how often the warning shot is followed by the real thing – something that sinks your business boat. In fact, the echoes of some recent shots can still be heard – real fusillade to follow. Let me give you a few examples:
Let’s go back to the not too distant past. Way back in 1999, Napster fired a shot across the music industry‘s bow. It was a warning for them to think about digital media and how it was changing their business model. Some parts of the music industry started filing lawsuits a year or so later – that was their response, not a reformulation of business. Other parts began rethinking things. Radiohead actually figured out how to use the file sharing service to promote their next album which then debuted at number 1 on the charts. Now, I’m a big believer in copyrights so please don’t take that as an endorsement of intellectual property theft. It is, however, an endorsement of paying attention to the shot across the bow that file sharing represented.
Amazon fired a warning shot to the publishing industry in late 2007 with the release of the first Kindle. There had been e-readers a year or so before but given Amazon’s position in the book distribution business, the Kindle shot should have told publishers that change was coming. Instead, many houses insisted on maintaining the same pricing to consumers (although I don’t think they’ve made the mistake of suing their consumers yet). As e-book sales rise, they should be asking themselves if authors really need publishers anymore and what their business is going to become. If your value-add to the author is your ability to put their words on paper and get them to retail and the demand for paper versions is going away while access to distribution is instant, open and global, you might want to pay attention to the warning shot.
We can’t ignore those warning shots, much as we’d like to. Change is never easy or fun but it happens with us or without us. Pay attention!
Heard anything across your bow lately? How can I help you listen and fire back without getting us sunk?
Consult Keith 