Tag Archives: Reality checks

December 8, 2015 · 11:22 am

Another Nail

Those of us who were fortunate to work in TV used to have a pretty good business, way back when.  You’d find a peach basket, open the window, and watch the basket fill up with money.  OK, it was a little harder than that, but TV has always been a business that grows exponentially in good times and shrinks only a little in bad times.  Growth was as reliable as the US Dollar.  So when I read the piece I’m about to show you, a quote from “The In-Laws” (one of my all-time favorite movies) jumps to mind: 

What do you think will happen when they run off this dough… and there’s trillions of extra dollars, francs, and marks floating around? You’ve got a collapse of confidence in the currency. People are gonna panic. There’s gonna be gold riots, atonal music… political chaos, mass suicide. Right? It’s Germany before Hitler. You can see that. Jesus, I don’t know what people are gonna do… when a six-pack of Budweisers costs $1,200. That’ll be awful.

In other words, when the basic currency of a business has changed substantially, chaos ensues.  It’s my belief that we’ve reached that point in media, as this report states:

For the first time outside of a recession, linear TV ad spend has stopped growing, according to global ad revenue updates by MAGNA Global and ZenithOptimedia, both released Monday. While national TV ad sales grew .3% to $42 billion in 2015, MAGNA predicted it will decrease by .3% in 2016. ZenithOptimedia’s Advertising Expenditures Forecast also found TV’s share of global ad spend will decrease from 38% in 2015 to 34.8% in 2018.

The basic currency – the TV CPM which is tied to the TV rating point – has lost its stability.  There are trillions (OK, billions, anyway) of extra GRPs available.  Pricing pressure has always been downward, but now there are options available that seem to be making that stick. I think we’re in a brief period where live events will hold pricing stable, but when only about a quarter of viewers are watching TV “live”, how long can that last?

This was the most ominous sentence in the piece: A shift in viewer attention and changing advertiser investments may therefore contribute to a decrease in both supply and demand for linear TV impressions.  The shift has happened.  The pretty good business is rethinking itself.  There will be political money and Olympics revenue in 2016 to serve as a band-aid as it does so.  But by 2017, the times could be, in the words of the Chinese curse, interesting.

Thoughts?

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December 4, 2015 · 11:29 am

Warning Labels

Another Friday, some more Foodie Friday Fun! This week our topic comes from right here in NYC, where the Board Of Health has stirred up the restaurants again. What they did was to pass a new rule requiring major restaurant chains to label foods that are particularly high in sodium. The National Restaurant Association is suing them in response, claiming that the Board “overstepped its authority with an arbitrary and capricious mandate” in a statement to Eater.

Warning label on a cigarette box, which booste...

 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This got me to thinking about warning labels. Obviously, this example is only one of many products that contain warnings – cigarettes being the most obvious. There are the less obvious warning labels – “past investment results are not an indicator of future returns.” for example.

There are also a number of products which, in my opinion, should also contain warning labels – things high in sugar, for example. But there is a broader point that I’d like us to think about.

Food products list ingredients – they have to. They also list what percentage of one’s daily intake of sugar, carbs, fat, salt – whatever – the product supplies. But there is no context. Nothing says if you consistently exceed the recommended sugar intake you are at risk for diabetes, and obviously there is an epidemic of it in this country. Is the ingredient list a warning label?

Less obvious are products the don’t warrant warnings on the surface but probably ought to have one. “This product is badly made and will fall apart after 5 uses.” “This fabric will shrink 3 sizes after the first wash.” Or how about “this garment was made using slave labor in unsafe working conditions” for an eye opener?

I guess the point I’m trying to make is that maybe we should ask ourselves if our product ought to have a warning label even if it’s the less obvious kind.  If it probably should, are we not doing the customer a disservice by foregoing its use?  I’m not talking about legal liability; I’m talking about doing what’s right.  Moreover, shouldn’t we be thinking about changing the product in such a way to make it “safer” as best we can so the label isn’t required?

Food for thought!

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November 25, 2015 · 11:20 am

Getting A Few “F’s” And Being Happy

A roast turkey as part of a traditional U.S. T...

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This is our final screed until Monday.  I’m going to enjoy the Thanksgiving break and hope you can do so as well.  The post below was written the day prior to Thanksgiving in 2008.  It’s still very appropriate, whether your gathering is 20+ people like ours, or just 4 of you enjoying the day and one another.  It’s not the size of the family (everyone who comes is family to me!) that matters or even if some members are missing.  It’s giving thanks for what you have and sharing the day with some people who matter to you.  Happy Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving is a lot of work in my house – maybe in yours as well.  If you’ve been reading along, you know that the menu planning, shopping, and prep work has been going on for several days and today (Wednesday) is the biggest of the prep days.   Tomorrow is focused on bringing all the pieces together, hopefully at the same time, and entertaining the horde that will descend.  I like to think of those pieces as the three “F”s. It’s also important to take a few seconds and reflect on them.  What?  You thought I meant the various dishes we’ve been wrangling up here?  Nope!

  • “F” number one is Family.  It’s the thing for which I am most thankful and the thing that has literally saved my life over this past year as I’ve made some pretty big life changes.  Having them here at this holiday is a labor of love and I hope they’ll all keep showing up for many years more.
  • “F” number two is Feasting.  We do ask everyone to bring something – an appetizer, wine, or a dessert, usually.  Obviously it’s not because it lightens the work load very much but because it makes them a part of the process.  It’s OUR meal as a family and our shared celebration.  The word “feast” comes from the same root as “festival” (yes, it’s also the same root Seinfeld used for “Festivus“) and we try to make it one.  All those days of prep come together in a 45 minute orgy of eating.  This holiday is very much like Christmas or Hanukah in that way – you prepare for quite a long time and then it’s over way too quickly.
  • “F” number three is Football.  This is America’s national sport and we’re very much a sports-oriented group.  I’ll never forget my Uncle Harry who would sit with us every year and watch the games.  “I don’t understand,” he would say, “they all fall down, they all get up, they do it again.  What kind of game is this?”  It could be paint drying – the point is that it’s a family ritual and through it we bond.

Hopefully those three pieces come together tomorrow in your house or wherever you’ll be as well.  Enjoy them!

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