Tag Archives: Reality checks

Where Are We Going?

I like smart people and I really like when smart people get together and have a think about things which interest me.

Internet!

(Photo credit: LarsZi)

That happened recently as the folks at the Pew Research Center, and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center set up an online survey to look at the future of the Internet, the Web, and other digital activities. This is the first of eight reports based on a canvassing of hundreds of experts about the future of such things as privacy, cybersecurity, the “Internet of things,” and net neutrality. In this case they asked experts to make their own predictions about the state of digital life by the year 2025.  It’s an interesting document, an overview of which you can read here and which is available in its entirety at this link.

This is a summary of what they found:

To a notable extent, the experts agree on the technology change that lies ahead, even as they disagree about its ramifications. Most believe there will be:

  • A global, immersive, invisible, ambient networked computing environment built through  the continued proliferation of smart sensors, cameras, software, databases, and massive data centers in a world-spanning information fabric known as the Internet of Things.
  • Augmented reality” enhancements to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable/wearable/implantable technologies.
  • Disruption of business models established in the 20th century (most notably impacting  finance, entertainment, publishers of all sorts, and education).
  • Tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social realms.

As one expert summed it up rather elegantly, information sharing over the Internet will be so effortlessly interwoven into daily life that it will become invisible, flowing like electricity, often through machine intermediaries.  But is that a good thing?

I consider myself pretty “wired.”  To the extent I’m not using a technology or am blocking data access, it’s by choice.  I’m not entirely comfortable with the value proposition – my data/personal information/behavioral habits in exchange for whatever it is you’re selling.  Of course I know that proposition is just an extension of the media value proposition – my attention in exchange for entertainment.  But if you’ve read anything about the data collection business (never mind what governments are doing!) you know that there is way too much room for abuse and error, both of which will have a negative impact that negates any value received in my mind.

I recognize I might be of a generation that doesn’t “get it.”  Or maybe we do, since “1984″ was required reading long before the year 1984.  While one of the slogans of the Party is “Ignorance Is Strength” I don’t believe that for a second.  It’s all a matter of what knowledge – data – is owned by whom.  And that, dear readers, is something to ponder.  Will you?

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Filed under Reality checks, Thinking Aloud

That Does Not Compute

One of the challenges any of us have in business is to predict the future.

English: Knuth's version of Euclid's algorithm...

. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The hardest part of my job – and maybe yours – is seeing over the horizon to help my clients get prepared for what is to come.  That might be a change in a market or it might be a change in technology.  No matter what it is, any of us who look ahead do so by gathering data.  In many cases that data is some measure of past behavior – how people bought from your website for example.  In many cases, those data points are put into some sort of algorithm which predicts what is to come.  Increasingly, many marketers and others use these models to drive their own business behaviors as the amount of data available grows exponentially.  While I’m not a believer that “big data means big problems,” a blind reliance on these algorithmic predictions can mean just that.

Let’s take one simple form of algorithm.  You probably see it every day.  it’s known as collaborative filtering and if you’re on Amazon or Netflix or any other site with a recommendation engine you’ve used it.  You may also have seen things offered to you as content on YouTube.  The algorithms use measures of your past behavior as well as of others like you (“people who bought XYZ also bought…”).  But what if you were buying a gift and the purchasing is not reflective or your tastes or interests at all?  What if someone else used your browser to search and purchase?  Cookies are browser-based – they have no way to tell if the activity is from one person or six.

Another problem.  Algorithms are built by people and those people are..well…human.  They might have confirmational bias operating as they refine the formula to eliminate noise – data that’s not germane to the prediction at hand.  The problem is that you don’t really know if it’s noise until it proves to be not significant.  Maybe it’s a new trend that your model misses altogether.

The thing to keep in mind is that modeling can only go so far.  It’s not very good  at predicting the unexpected.  It tends to ignore outliers.  As with all things, you need to ask questions, search for facts, and draw your own conclusions.  Yes, it’s impossible to make sense of all this data without algorithmically based analysis.  Just remember that while machines don’t make computational errors it was a human that gathered the data (or installed the code that does) and wrote the formula.  People often don’t compute.  Make sense?

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Filed under Consulting, Reality checks

Nowhere To Run

I had a hard time about this week’s TunesDay selection.

Nowhere to Run (Martha and the Vandellas song)

Nowhere to Run (Martha and the Vandellas song) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Oh, the song itself wasn’t too difficult. Rolling Stone named it in its 500 Greatest Songs Of All Time and it’s from a songwriting team – Holland-Dozier-Holland – that cranked out many of the radio hits of my youth.  You might know the artists – Martha and the Vandellas – from Heat Wave and Dancing In The Streets.  This song is the third part of their top hit trinity – give it a listen:

Hard not bop along to the Motown house band (The Funk Brothers!) although I’m not sure running through the auto plant’s paint department without a respirator is great for one’s voice.  In any event, why did this choice give me trouble?  Maybe because it inspired so many business thoughts.  Let me share a couple.

These lyrics:

It’s not love
I’m running from
It’s the heartaches
That I know will come

‘Cause I know
You’re no good for me
But you’ve become
A part of me

made me think  of technology.  Every day there is a new story about someone invading consumers’ privacy.  None of us seem to have enough time in the day to focus on anything because we’re all too focused on everything.  In the tech world (and elsewhere) we’ve gone from taking the time to make sure what we produce is great to trying to crank out something – anything – that’s good enough.  After all, the product will be obsolete in a few months anyway.  Yet there is nowhere to hide – we depend on these devices and it’s hard to stay private when you’re using publicly accessible tools.

I also had a thought about customers becoming addicted to products.  Putting aside the obvious issues with a physical addiction to drugs or alcohol, I think some brands like the notion of having customers feel “you’ve become a part of me.”  True enough – fostering a conversation is where marketing needs to be but despite the upbeat music, this song is quite dark. Do we want our customers feeling there’s no place to hide, whether it’s from our ads or our prying eyes?  I think not – what do you think?

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Filed under Music, Reality checks