Tag Archives: Business model

Mobile Data And Changing Habits

Let’s begin the day with a factoid:  last year’s mobile data traffic was nearly twelve times the size of the entire global Internet in 2000.  That nugget comes from the Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2012–2017 which you can read by clicking the link.  Some of what it has to say – as with the growth of smartphone use, for example – isn’t all that surprising.  A few other points is kind of eye-opening:

  • Mobile network connection speeds more than doubled in 2012.
  • Android is now higher than iPhone levels of data use.
  • Mobile video traffic exceeded 50 percent for the first time in 2012.
  • By the end of 2013, the number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth, and by 2017 there will be nearly 1.4 mobile devices per capita.
  • Nonsmartphone usage increased 35 percent to 6.8 MB per month in 2012, compared to 5.0 MB per month in 2011. Basic handsets still make up the vast majority of handsets on the network (82 percent).

That last one is a little scary since it shows that there is still a lot of growth left.   Here’s the thing – a lot of this traffic was on cellular networks (as opposed to wi-fi), which is obviously why the telephone guys are upgrading like crazy.  I think the growth is as much about device growth as it is about the services and quality of the content available on them, and it’s this last little bit that I think will continue to drive things.  We tend to think of mobile devices as “second screen” but to me this study is evidence that they’re becoming a primary screen with respect to some content.  That primary usage builds habits, and one wonders when those habits will be reflected in viewing to what are currently primary screens.

Another nugget: the average smartphone will generate 2.7 GB of traffic per month in 2017, an 8-fold increase over the 2012 average of 342 MB per month.  How does that jibe with the bandwidth plans the carriers are selling?  If they’re refusing to sell an “unlimited” plan or throttling speeds over 2GB, how will consumers react?

We can see all of this happening already.  YouTube, for example, gets lots of views and while those views don’t eclipse the numbers that a major TV or cable network can deliver, they certainly are bigger than some of the second and third tier nets.  YouTube is not generally available in homes but is ubiquitous on mobile devices.  As YouTube behaves more like a cable content aggregator, one will see those numbers grow.  That’s what’s driving the numbers Cisco is predicting.  Is it driving you?

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Time Spent Apping

A piece came out in TechCrunch yesterday concerning the increased time people are spending in mobile apps.

Kicking Television

(Photo credit: dhammza)

According to their analysis time spent with mobile apps (127 minutes a day) has surpassed time spent on the web via a desktop (70 minutes) and is gaining on TV usage (168 minutes).  It’s an interesting comparison and the piece goes on to say the usual things about how mobile may be the future but it’s still an unknown business model for marketers and investors (except for the carriers – that business model seems to be pretty well-defined and pretty damn good!).

I have a few thoughts I’d like to share.  First, while the piece implies that TV is somehow threatened by this, the fact that TV use has not declined should demonstrate that it’s not going anywhere.  In fact, according to the data presented in the piece, TV usage has increased over the last two years.  What’s not clear from the piece is what is being consumed on the TV.  Does watching streaming video via Netflix on my TV count as TV?  I’m assuming this does include time-shifted TV which may or may not include watching the commercials that are a piece of commercial TV’s business model.

Second, as someone who rode a train two hours each day for many years, I can tell you that there is an awful lot of downtime.  For the last few of those years when I had a smartphone, I began to use some of my commuting time to do some of the things cited in the study – social networking, catch up on news, etc.  No streaming video then but I’m sure I’d be watching it now.  All of those minutes are incremental involvement with content (and the marketing that supports the content) I otherwise might have foregone.  It’s pretty easy to spend a few minutes of downtime at lunch on your mobile device.  I don’t see these numbers as negatives.

Finally, the piece does ask the right question which is how companies can capitalize on all of this mobile activity.  There is too little information  it’s too hard to scale, and the marketing model within apps is still not impactful.  The app world is way more fragmented than is the TV world or the worlds of other “mass” media.  Then again, the app world is only five years old (dating it to when the first iPhone came out).  The commercial web is still searching for a business model in many ways and it’s going on twenty.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  What do you think?

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Free Lunch

I was going to write our Foodie Friday Fun piece about Jacques Pepin and his insistence in cracking eggs on a flat surface until I realized that I had written it already almost three years ago.  I guess that sort of proves his point – small details are what makes good cooking.  It makes good businesspeople and managers too.  Apparently, it makes for less redundant blogs as well.

Lunch

Lunch (Photo credit: munir)

Instead, let’s write about free lunches.  We’ve all heard about them and that it’s supposedly impossible to get something for nothing.  It comes from the old tradition of bars serving free food if you bought drinks.  I was reminded of this as I experienced yet another “freemium” model.  The problem is that many companies have turned freemium into bait and switch.  They’ve also made the free product pretty useless without the premium purchase.  There’s a really nice piece on three gaming companies and how they approached this balance on The Mary Sue (hat tip to my girl geek youngest daughter for pointing it out!).

In my case, I used an online golf trip service.  It’s a great idea – in fact, it was a concept my buddies and I had talked about doing ourselves to help other groups plan golf trips and score golf tournaments.  The problem is this:  the basics – organizing emails, setting up housing, and communicating with the group are free.  Another free element is setting up scorecards.  Once you actually have scores, you can input them but tournament results are part of the paid system.  So is the trip accounting.  Now if you’ve ever traveled with other folks you know that keeping track of the money and dividing it all out is a big pain.  So is scoring a golf tournament when handicaps, match play, and other side bets factor in.  The price to upgrade is per player, per round, so as the trip gets bigger or longer, the cost goes up until, as in our case, it became prohibitively expensive.  In other words, I scored the tournament manually, the accountant is figuring out the bills manually, and we won’t be back to the service since it offers us nothing we really need.

I’ve had the freemium business model discussion with many clients over the last few years.  I think it’s a good idea but I also think it the free part needs to be valuable on its own and the paid part needs to be an add-on, not an integral part of why folks would use the product in the first place.  As always, the focus needs to be on the customer and providing value, not on luring them in with a semi-broken product that only a payment fixes.  Look at Pandora or Skype – great freemium businesses. So is Valve, the game company.

There may not be any free lunch but we certainly can provide some great free snacks that whet folk’s appetites without making them angry.  You with me?

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