Tag Archives: technology

May 2, 2012 · 10:12 am

Bubbles

Many of you may have seen a bunch of articles asking if we’re in another tech bubble.  There was an excellent one today in The Silicon Alley Insider (they conclude we’re not and their reasoning is pretty sound and fact-based) and it got me thinking about the nature of “bubbles” and how tech is far from the only area to experience them.  In fact, I’m going to posit that your business may fall victim to them at times.  Let me explain.

Here is the definition of a bubble from the article:

…We have to ask what a bubble is. And the important thing to get is that a bubble is a mass delusion. Technology investor and visionary Peter Thiel has a good definition which boils down to this: a bubble is a) a widespread, intense belief that’s b) wrong.  In other words, a bubble is what happens when the vast majority of people believe (and are putting their money into) things based on a fundamentally wrong-headed notion.

I like that, and I think it’s applicable to people just as much as it is to businesses.  We can start with many of the “celebrities” that populate so much of our popular culture today.  Many people seem to believe things about them (they’re role models, they’ve got talent) that are fundamentally wrong.  Add most of the “artists” we hear who are incapable of performing without electronic enhancement if, in fact, they’re the ones performing their music at all.  Most of the time, they’ve taken a riff from someone else’s work and gone from there.

Then there are some “thought leaders” out there who haven’t had an original thought in a decade.  Unfortunately, a good portion of the traditional trade press (which makes a lot of its dough from subscriptions and ads from these some folks) doesn’t point out that these emperors are naked.  There is a leadership bubble in many sectors – an intense belief in people who are just wrong.

Sorry for the snark today but am I off-base?  Are we living in a time of mass delusion?  Or am I the only delusional one?

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April 30, 2012 · 10:41 am

10 Years After

I was thinking over the weekend about what a very different place the world is going to be from a technical and media perspective in just a few years.  Of course, if you take a few minutes to think back and recall how the world was in 2002, just a decade ago, you’d be missing YouTube, iPhones, Facebook, Twitter, and hybrid cars.  Every one of those things is a daily part of my life and probably yours as well.

Image representing iPhone as depicted in Crunc...

Image via CrunchBase

What got me thinking about this was this:

New research from Leichtman Research Group finds that 38% of all U.S. households have at least one television set connected to the internet via a video game system, a Blu-ray player, an Apple TV, a Roku set-top box and/or the TV set itself. This number is up from 30% last year, and 24% from two years ago. Game consoles are the key devices within this category, as 28% of all households have a video game system connected to the web.

I spend some time each week watching Hulu+, Netflix, YouTube, and other services through my Xbox.  That time spent is not incremental to normal TV viewing – it’s content I find more interesting than what’s available.  That behavior ties in with the research:

  • 13% of Netflix subscribers would consider reducing spending on their multichannel video service because of Netflix, down from 21% last year.
  • 16% of all U.S. adults watch full-length TV shows online at least weekly, up from 12% last year.
  • 19% of mobile phone owners watch video on their phones on a weekly basis; while 9% of all U.S. adults watch video on an iPad/tablet.

So I sort of had this flash forward.  If traditional cable boxes become anachronisms, what else goes with them?  I think desktop computers will be history soon, as tablets and other mobile devices access cloud-based services and data.  Even though I have many computers in my home, I spend nearly all my time on a laptop and could very easily transition to a tablet with a keyboard.  Skype and Google Voice could replace my landline and just may shortly.  I’m sure you can add a few legacy technologies/services that need either to pivot or die.

In only 10 years, a lot of our behavior has been changed by a few services and technologies.  In another 10, it will all be different again.  Are you ready?  Is your business?

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April 26, 2012 · 9:45 am

It’s Not ADD, It’s Technology

Time published the results of a study on media habits and the proliferation of mobile digital devices.  If you do decide to click-through and read it, be prepared to be disturbed.  I was.  Then again, I’m what is called in the study a “digital immigrant” – someone who picked up mobile technology in his adult life which was, of course, when it was invented.  Digital natives are those who grew up with the technology.  Since we’re all about being helpful here (and since if you’re under 30 your attentionis likely to wander in about 5 seconds according to this), let me post some of the key findings:

Nokia N8

Photo credit: Wikipedia

  • Digital Natives switch their attention between media platforms (i.e. TVs, magazines, tablets, smartphones or channels within platforms) 27 times per hour, about every other minute.
  • Because Digital Natives spend more time using multiple media platforms simultaneously, their emotional engagement with content is constrained. They experience fewer highs and lows of emotional response and as a result, Digital Natives more frequently use media to regulate their mood – as soon as they grow tired or bored, they turn their attention to something new.
  • More than half (54%) of Digital Natives say “I prefer texting people rather than talking to them” compared with 28% of Digital immigrants
  • One major implication of these findings is that Digital Immigrants are intuitively linear – they want to see a beginning, middle, and end to stories. For Natives, stories still need a beginning, middle and end, but they will accept it in any order. Digital Natives are subconsciously switching between platforms and can pick up different pieces of a story from different mediums in any order.

Let me add some random points from an article on A.D.D., which seems to be running rampant among young folks:

  • (ADD) is characterized primarily by inattention, easy distractibility, disorganization, procrastination, and forgetfulness
  • Often has trouble keeping attention on tasks or play activities.
  • Is often easily distracted.
  • Avoiding tasks that require a high amount of mental effort and organization
  • Often having difficulty concentrating on conversations

Is it me, or do you see the similarities?  One might wonder if the ADD diagnosis can be applied to anyone whom Time classifies as a Digital Native.  Maybe instead of giving Ritalin and Adderall we ought to be taking away smartphones and tablets?

Thoughts?

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