Big Brown won the Haskell Invitational yesterday. For those of you not into horse racing, Big Brown won the first two legs of the Triple Crown this past May and failed miserably in the Belmont Stakes. Yesterday’s win, while against a weaker field than the Belmont, was a win in a stakes race nevertheless and put to rest a good chunk of the doubts about this horse’s ability.
I bring this up because this is typical of what goes on in the sports world as well as the business world (maybe politics too but we don’t go there in this blog!). An athlete or business person puts on some unbelievable performances and is elevated to “all time great” status immediately. Maybe they repeat the performance for a little while at the same superlative level. Then, they stumble. The media, the public, maybe their peers give up on them. They question if the prior performances were due to luck or drugs rather than ability. Finally, like Big Brown, the former star puts on a good performance – maybe not at the superlative level of before but certainly good enough to demonstrate that the earlier performances were not flukes. Big Brown is one example, Michelle Wie is another (although she really should have played in the Women’s British Open this past weekend and not against the men). One can argue Dale Jr. is another. I can cite a number of examples in business.
If you’ve read this blog before, you know that I believe in making rapid, informed decisions especially when dealing in areas such as digital that are constantly changing. However, there is a difference between making a rapid decision and making a rash decision. Rash decisions ignore prior facts and are delivered in a tone of “this is written in stone.” Writing off anyone on the basis of a single poor performance is rash.
Consult Keith 